Today’s odds
As of September 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.9%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 8, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
0.9%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 0.9% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | 0.9% |
| 2026-07-29 | 3% |
| 2026-07-28 | 4% |
| 2026-07-27 | 4% |
| 2026-07-26 | 4% |
| 2026-07-25 | 4% |
| 2026-07-08 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of September 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.9%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 4% on July 8, 2026 to 0.9% on September 5, 2026 — a change of 3 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026” for 7 days, since July 8, 2026. As of September 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.9%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 4% to 0.9%, ranging between 0.9% and 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.