Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 23, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
10%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 10% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 10% |
| 2026-10-04 | 10% |
| 2026-10-03 | 10% |
| 2026-10-02 | 12% |
| 2026-10-01 | 12% |
| 2026-09-30 | 12% |
| 2026-09-29 | 12% |
| 2026-09-28 | 14% |
| 2026-09-27 | 14% |
| 2026-09-26 | 14% |
| 2026-09-25 | 14% |
| 2026-09-24 | 16% |
| 2026-09-23 | 16% |
| 2026-09-22 | 14% |
| 2026-09-21 | 14% |
| 2026-09-20 | 14% |
| 2026-09-19 | 14% |
| 2026-09-18 | 14% |
| 2026-09-17 | 14% |
| 2026-09-16 | 14% |
| 2026-09-15 | 14% |
| 2026-09-14 | 14% |
| 2026-09-13 | 12% |
| 2026-09-12 | 14% |
| 2026-09-11 | 13% |
| 2026-09-10 | 14% |
| 2026-09-09 | 12% |
| 2026-07-31 | 22% |
| 2026-07-30 | 22% |
| 2026-07-29 | 22% |
| 2026-07-28 | 22% |
| 2026-07-27 | 22% |
| 2026-07-26 | 24% |
| 2026-07-25 | 24% |
| 2026-07-24 | 24% |
| 2026-07-23 | 24% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 36 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 24% on July 23, 2026 to 10% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 36 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 24%. The final reading of 10% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026” for 36 days, since July 23, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 24% to 10%, ranging between 10% and 24% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.