Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 3%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 20, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
3%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 3% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 3% |
| 2026-10-11 | 3% |
| 2026-10-10 | 2% |
| 2026-10-09 | 2% |
| 2026-10-08 | 2% |
| 2026-10-07 | 3% |
| 2026-10-06 | 3% |
| 2026-10-05 | 3% |
| 2026-10-03 | 3% |
| 2026-10-02 | 3% |
| 2026-10-01 | 5% |
| 2026-08-30 | 6% |
| 2026-08-29 | 8% |
| 2026-08-28 | 8% |
| 2026-08-27 | 8% |
| 2026-08-26 | 8% |
| 2026-08-25 | 8% |
| 2026-08-24 | 8% |
| 2026-08-23 | 8% |
| 2026-08-22 | 8% |
| 2026-08-21 | 8% |
| 2026-08-20 | 8% |
| 2026-08-19 | 8% |
| 2026-08-18 | 8% |
| 2026-08-17 | 8% |
| 2026-08-16 | 9% |
| 2026-08-15 | 10% |
| 2026-08-14 | 10% |
| 2026-08-13 | 10% |
| 2026-08-12 | 10% |
| 2026-08-11 | 11% |
| 2026-08-10 | 10% |
| 2026-08-09 | 10% |
| 2026-08-08 | 10% |
| 2026-08-07 | 10% |
| 2026-08-03 | 12% |
| 2026-08-02 | 12% |
| 2026-08-01 | 11% |
| 2026-07-31 | 10% |
| 2026-07-30 | 11% |
| 2026-07-29 | 12% |
| 2026-07-28 | 12% |
| 2026-07-27 | 12% |
| 2026-07-20 | 12% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 3%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 44 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on July 20, 2026 to 3% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 9 points.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 44 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 12%. The current reading of 3% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026” for 44 days, since July 20, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 3%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 3%, ranging between 2% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.