Today’s odds
As of August 9, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 20, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
10%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 8 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 10% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | 10% |
| 2026-08-08 | 10% |
| 2026-08-07 | 10% |
| 2026-08-03 | 12% |
| 2026-08-02 | 12% |
| 2026-08-01 | 11% |
| 2026-07-31 | 10% |
| 2026-07-30 | 11% |
| 2026-07-29 | 12% |
| 2026-07-28 | 12% |
| 2026-07-27 | 12% |
| 2026-07-20 | 12% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 9, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on July 20, 2026 to 10% on August 9, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026” for 12 days, since July 20, 2026. As of August 9, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.