Final tracked odds
As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 20%.
▼ 6 since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
Politics · tracked since October 30, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 31, 2026
20%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 26% | 20% | ▼ 6 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | 20% |
| 2026-10-30 | 26% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 20%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 26% on October 30, 2026 to 20% on October 31, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 20% and 26%. The final reading of 20% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31” for 2 days, since October 30, 2026. As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 20%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 26% to 20%, ranging between 20% and 26% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.