Final tracked odds
As of September 26, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 98%.
▲ 3 since the previous update. ▲ 14 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
Politics · tracked since July 18, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 26, 2026
98%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 25 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 95% | 98% | ▲ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | 98% |
| 2026-09-25 | 95% |
| 2026-09-24 | 94% |
| 2026-09-23 | 91% |
| 2026-07-19 | 84% |
| 2026-07-18 | 84% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 26, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 98%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 84% on July 18, 2026 to 98% on September 26, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 84% and 98%. The final reading of 98% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x China tariff agreement by December 31” for 6 days, since July 18, 2026. As of September 26, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 98%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 84% to 98%, ranging between 84% and 98% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 26, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.