Final tracked odds
As of November 2, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 46%.
▲ 4 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?
Politics · tracked since October 27, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 2, 2026
46%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42% | 46% | ▲ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | 46% |
| 2026-11-01 | 42% |
| 2026-10-27 | 45% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 2, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 46%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22” for 3 days, since October 27, 2026. As of November 2, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 46%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 45%, ranging between 42% and 46% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 2, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.