Today’s odds
As of August 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 64%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Politics · tracked since July 21, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
64%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 28 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 68% | 64% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 64% |
| 2026-07-28 | 68% |
| 2026-07-27 | 64% |
| 2026-07-21 | 37% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14 — what are the odds?
- As of August 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 64%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 37% on July 21, 2026 to 64% on August 4, 2026 — a change of 27 points.
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 37% and 68%. The current reading of 64% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14” for 4 days, since July 21, 2026. As of August 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 64%. The chance for a yes has risen from 37% to 64%, ranging between 37% and 68% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.