US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 15, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 99.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11 — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 60% on September 9, 2026 to 99.4% on September 15, 2026 — a change of 39 points.

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 60% and 99.4%. The final reading of 99.4% sits at the top of that range.

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since September 9, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 15, 2026

99.4%

Final tracked odds

As of September 15, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 99.4%.

▲ 12 since the previous update. ▲ 39 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 13	Today	Move
Yes	87%	99.4%	▲ 12

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-09-15	99.4%
2026-09-13	87%
2026-09-09	60%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 15, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 99.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11 — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 60% on September 9, 2026 to 99.4% on September 15, 2026 — a change of 39 points.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 60% and 99.4%. The final reading of 99.4% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11” for 3 days, since September 9, 2026. As of September 15, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 99.4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 60% to 99.4%, ranging between 60% and 99.4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 15, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.