US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 14, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 94%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7 — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 64% on September 8, 2026 to 94% on September 14, 2026 — a change of 30 points.

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 64% and 94%. The final reading of 94% sits at the top of that range.

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Politics · tracked since September 8, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 14, 2026

94%

Final tracked odds

As of September 14, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 94%.

▲ 30 since the previous update. ▲ 30 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 8	Today	Move
Yes	64%	94%	▲ 30

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-09-14	94%
2026-09-08	64%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 14, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 94%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7 — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 64% on September 8, 2026 to 94% on September 14, 2026 — a change of 30 points.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 64% and 94%. The final reading of 94% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7” for 2 days, since September 8, 2026. As of September 14, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 94%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 64% to 94%, ranging between 64% and 94% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 14, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.