Final tracked odds
As of August 25, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 32%.
▲ 16 since the previous update. ▲ 16 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Politics · tracked since July 19, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 25, 2026
32%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 14 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ralph Norman | 16% | 32% | ▲ 16 |
Full history table
| Date | Ralph Norman |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | 32% |
| 2026-08-14 | 16% |
| 2026-08-10 | 24% |
| 2026-08-09 | — |
| 2026-08-07 | — |
| 2026-08-03 | — |
| 2026-08-02 | — |
| 2026-08-01 | — |
| 2026-07-19 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 25, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 32%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 24% on August 10, 2026 to 32% on August 25, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
- Who will be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 32%. The final reading of 32% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina” for 3 days, since July 19, 2026. As of August 25, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 32%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 24% to 32%, ranging between 16% and 32% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 25, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.