The Morning Line

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026

1.1%

Final tracked odds

As of October 5, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Demeke Mekonnen leads at 1.1%.

Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Demeke MekonnenGedion TimothewosBelete MollaShimelis AbdisaBerhanu Nega
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 8Jul 30Aug 21Sep 13Oct 5Demeke Mekonnen — Jul 18: 0.2%Demeke Mekonnen — Oct 5: 1.1%1.1%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 8: 0.1%Gedion Timothewos — Oct 5: 0.7%Belete Molla — Jul 16: 0.2%Belete Molla — Oct 5: 0.4%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 8: 0.2%Shimelis Abdisa — Oct 5: 0.3%Berhanu Nega — Jul 8: 0.5%Berhanu Nega — Oct 5: 0.2%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeOct 4TodayMove
Demeke Mekonnen1.1%1.1%—
Gedion Timothewos0.7%0.7%—
Belete Molla0.4%0.4%—
Shimelis Abdisa0.3%0.3%—
Berhanu Nega0.3%0.2%—
Adanech Abiebie0.2%0.2%—
Full history table
DateDemeke MekonnenGedion TimothewosBelete MollaShimelis AbdisaBerhanu NegaAdanech Abiebie
2026-10-051.1%0.7%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.2%
2026-10-041.1%0.7%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.2%
2026-10-031.1%0.7%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.2%
2026-10-021.1%0.7%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.2%
2026-10-011.2%0.8%0.5%0.4%0.3%0.2%
2026-09-301.4%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.3%0.2%
2026-09-291.2%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-281.4%0.4%0.5%0.7%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-271.4%0.8%0.5%0.7%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-261.5%0.8%0.5%0.9%0.4%0.2%
2026-09-251.5%0.8%0.5%0.9%0.3%0.2%
2026-09-241.5%0.8%0.4%0.9%0.3%0.2%
2026-09-231.1%0.5%0.4%0.9%0.3%0.2%
2026-09-220.9%0.8%0.5%1.0%0.4%0.3%
2026-09-210.2%0.8%0.5%1.0%0.4%0.3%
2026-09-200.2%0.8%0.5%1.0%0.4%0.3%
2026-09-190.2%0.8%0.5%1.0%0.4%0.3%
2026-09-180.2%0.8%0.5%1.1%0.4%0.3%
2026-09-170.2%0.8%0.5%1.4%0.4%0.3%
2026-09-160.2%0.7%0.4%2%0.3%0.2%
2026-09-150.2%0.8%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-140.2%0.8%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-130.2%0.8%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-120.2%0.7%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-110.2%0.7%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.2%
2026-09-100.2%0.7%0.4%0.2%0.6%0.3%
2026-09-090.2%0.7%0.4%0.2%0.6%0.4%
2026-09-080.2%0.8%0.4%0.2%0.7%0.4%
2026-09-070.2%0.8%0.4%0.2%0.7%0.4%
2026-09-060.2%0.8%0.4%0.2%0.7%0.4%
2026-09-050.2%0.8%0.4%0.2%0.7%0.4%
2026-09-040.2%0.8%0.4%0.2%0.7%0.4%
2026-09-030.2%0.8%0.4%0.2%0.7%0.4%
2026-09-020.2%0.9%0.4%0.2%0.7%0.4%
2026-09-010.2%0.9%0.4%0.2%0.7%0.4%
2026-08-310.2%0.9%0.4%0.2%0.7%0.4%
2026-08-300.3%0.9%0.4%0.3%0.7%0.6%
2026-08-290.3%0.9%0.4%0.3%0.7%0.6%
2026-08-280.3%0.9%0.4%0.3%0.7%0.6%
2026-08-270.3%1.0%0.4%0.3%0.7%0.6%
2026-08-260.3%0.9%0.4%0.3%0.7%0.6%
2026-08-250.3%0.8%0.4%0.3%0.6%0.6%
2026-08-240.3%0.6%0.4%0.3%0.6%0.6%
2026-08-230.3%0.8%0.4%0.3%0.6%0.6%
2026-08-220.3%1.0%0.4%0.3%0.6%0.7%
2026-08-210.3%0.7%0.4%0.4%0.6%0.7%
2026-08-200.3%1.4%0.4%0.4%0.7%0.7%
2026-08-190.3%1.4%0.4%0.4%0.7%0.7%
2026-08-180.4%2%0.4%0.4%0.7%0.7%
2026-08-170.4%2%0.1%0.4%0.7%0.7%
2026-08-160.4%2%0.4%0.4%0.7%0.6%
2026-08-150.4%2%0.4%0.4%0.7%0.7%
2026-08-140.4%2%0.4%0.4%0.7%0.6%
2026-08-130.4%2%0.4%0.4%0.7%0.7%
2026-08-120.4%2%0.4%0.4%0.7%0.6%
2026-08-110.5%2%0.4%0.4%0.7%0.5%
2026-08-100.5%2%0.6%0.4%0.8%0.4%
2026-08-090.4%2%0.6%0.4%0.8%0.3%
2026-08-080.4%2%0.6%0.5%0.9%0.3%
2026-08-070.5%2%0.6%0.5%0.7%0.7%
2026-08-060.4%2%0.6%0.6%0.4%1.1%
2026-08-050.4%2%0.6%0.5%0.3%1.1%
2026-08-040.5%2%0.5%0.7%0.2%0.2%
2026-08-030.5%2%0.5%0.8%0.2%0.2%
2026-08-020.3%2%0.5%0.8%0.3%0.2%
2026-08-010.3%2%0.5%0.8%0.4%0.2%
2026-07-310.3%2%0.6%0.9%0.4%0.2%
2026-07-300.5%2%0.7%0.9%0.6%0.3%
2026-07-290.4%2%0.7%1.1%0.3%0.4%
2026-07-280.4%2%0.7%1.1%0.5%0.2%
2026-07-270.4%2%0.7%0.7%0.4%0.2%
2026-07-260.4%2%0.7%1.1%0.5%0.2%
2026-07-250.4%2%0.7%1.1%0.5%0.2%
2026-07-240.4%2%0.7%1.1%0.5%0.2%
2026-07-230.3%2%0.5%0.2%0.2%0.1%
2026-07-220.2%2%0.8%0.2%0.2%0.2%
2026-07-210.5%1.0%0.4%0.2%0.2%0.7%
2026-07-200.4%2%0.3%0.4%0.3%0.4%
2026-07-190.2%1.5%0.3%0.4%0.3%0.4%
2026-07-180.2%1.1%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
2026-07-17—0.9%0.3%0.2%0.4%0.4%
2026-07-16—0.2%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.2%
2026-07-15—0.5%—0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-07-14—0.6%—0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-07-13—0.5%—0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-07-12—1.0%—0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-07-11—0.9%—0.4%0.5%0.2%
2026-07-10—0.2%—0.2%0.6%0.2%
2026-07-09—0.1%—0.2%0.5%0.2%
2026-07-08—0.1%—0.2%0.5%0.2%
2026-07-07—0.1%—0.2%0.5%0.2%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 1.1%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia — how much did the odds move?
Barely. Across 80 tracked days the odds held near 0.2%, ending at 1.1% on October 5, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia” for 80 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Demeke Mekonnen leads at 1.1%. The final tracked chance for the leading outcome has held near 0.2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.