The Morning Line

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Politics · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

2%

Today’s odds

As of July 29, 2026, this is wide open — no outcome clears 10% in market-consensus odds; Alesa Mengesha leads at 2%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Alesa MengeshaGedion TimothewosShimelis AbdisaBelete MollaBerhanu Nega
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 13Jul 18Jul 23Jul 29Alesa Mengesha — Jul 11: 0.4%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 12: 0.4%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 13: 0.4%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 14: 0.4%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 15: 0.4%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 16: 0.4%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 17: 0.4%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 18: 0.2%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 19: 0.2%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 20: 0.3%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 21: 0.2%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 22: 0.2%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 23: 0.2%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 24: 2%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 25: 1.4%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 26: 1.3%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 27: 1.1%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 28: 1.4%Alesa Mengesha — Jul 29: 2%2%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 7: 0.1%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 8: 0.1%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 9: 0.1%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 10: 0.2%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 11: 0.9%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 12: 1.0%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 13: 0.5%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 14: 0.6%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 15: 0.5%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 16: 0.2%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 17: 0.9%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 18: 1.1%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 19: 1.5%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 20: 2%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 21: 1.0%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 22: 2%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 23: 2%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 24: 2%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 25: 2%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 26: 2%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 27: 2%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 28: 2%Gedion Timothewos — Jul 29: 1.5%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 7: 0.2%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 8: 0.2%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 9: 0.2%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 10: 0.2%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 11: 0.4%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 12: 0.4%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 13: 0.4%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 14: 0.4%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 15: 0.4%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 16: 0.3%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 17: 0.2%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 18: 0.4%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 19: 0.4%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 20: 0.4%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 21: 0.2%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 22: 0.2%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 23: 0.2%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 24: 1.1%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 25: 1.1%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 26: 1.1%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 27: 0.7%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 28: 1.1%Shimelis Abdisa — Jul 29: 1.1%Belete Molla — Jul 16: 0.2%Belete Molla — Jul 17: 0.3%Belete Molla — Jul 18: 0.4%Belete Molla — Jul 19: 0.3%Belete Molla — Jul 20: 0.3%Belete Molla — Jul 21: 0.4%Belete Molla — Jul 22: 0.8%Belete Molla — Jul 23: 0.5%Belete Molla — Jul 24: 0.7%Belete Molla — Jul 25: 0.7%Belete Molla — Jul 26: 0.7%Belete Molla — Jul 27: 0.7%Belete Molla — Jul 28: 0.7%Belete Molla — Jul 29: 0.7%Berhanu Nega — Jul 7: 0.5%Berhanu Nega — Jul 8: 0.5%Berhanu Nega — Jul 9: 0.5%Berhanu Nega — Jul 10: 0.6%Berhanu Nega — Jul 11: 0.5%Berhanu Nega — Jul 12: 0.4%Berhanu Nega — Jul 13: 0.4%Berhanu Nega — Jul 14: 0.4%Berhanu Nega — Jul 15: 0.4%Berhanu Nega — Jul 16: 0.4%Berhanu Nega — Jul 17: 0.4%Berhanu Nega — Jul 18: 0.4%Berhanu Nega — Jul 19: 0.3%Berhanu Nega — Jul 20: 0.3%Berhanu Nega — Jul 21: 0.2%Berhanu Nega — Jul 22: 0.2%Berhanu Nega — Jul 23: 0.2%Berhanu Nega — Jul 24: 0.5%Berhanu Nega — Jul 25: 0.5%Berhanu Nega — Jul 26: 0.5%Berhanu Nega — Jul 27: 0.4%Berhanu Nega — Jul 28: 0.5%Berhanu Nega — Jul 29: 0.5%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 28TodayMove
Alesa Mengesha1.4%2%—
Gedion Timothewos2%1.5%—
Shimelis Abdisa1.1%1.1%—
Belete Molla0.7%0.7%—
Berhanu Nega0.5%0.5%—
Demeke Mekonnen0.4%0.4%—
Adanech Abiebie0.2%0.3%—
Full history table
DateAlesa MengeshaGedion TimothewosShimelis AbdisaBelete MollaBerhanu NegaDemeke MekonnenAdanech Abiebie
2026-07-292%1.5%1.1%0.7%0.5%0.4%0.3%
2026-07-281.4%2%1.1%0.7%0.5%0.4%0.2%
2026-07-271.1%2%0.7%0.7%0.4%0.4%0.2%
2026-07-261.3%2%1.1%0.7%0.5%0.4%0.2%
2026-07-251.4%2%1.1%0.7%0.5%0.4%0.2%
2026-07-242%2%1.1%0.7%0.5%0.4%0.2%
2026-07-230.2%2%0.2%0.5%0.2%0.3%0.1%
2026-07-220.2%2%0.2%0.8%0.2%0.2%0.2%
2026-07-210.2%1.0%0.2%0.4%0.2%0.5%0.7%
2026-07-200.3%2%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.4%
2026-07-190.2%1.5%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.4%
2026-07-180.2%1.1%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.2%0.4%
2026-07-170.4%0.9%0.2%0.3%0.4%—0.4%
2026-07-160.4%0.2%0.3%0.2%0.4%—0.2%
2026-07-150.4%0.5%0.4%—0.4%—0.2%
2026-07-140.4%0.6%0.4%—0.4%—0.2%
2026-07-130.4%0.5%0.4%—0.4%—0.2%
2026-07-120.4%1.0%0.4%—0.4%—0.2%
2026-07-110.4%0.9%0.4%—0.5%—0.2%
2026-07-10—0.2%0.2%—0.6%—0.2%
2026-07-09—0.1%0.2%—0.5%—0.2%
2026-07-08—0.1%0.2%—0.5%—0.2%
2026-07-07—0.1%0.2%—0.5%—0.2%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia — what are the odds?
As of July 29, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia — have the odds gone up or down?
Up. Over the 19 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 0.4% on July 11, 2026 to 2% on July 29, 2026 — a change of 2 points.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia” for 19 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 29, 2026, no outcome clears 10% — Alesa Mengesha leads at 2%. The chance for the leading outcome has risen from 0.4% to 2% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.