Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 68%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 31 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Who will be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
Politics · tracked since September 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
68%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 4 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ulrich Siegmund | 66% | 68% | ▲ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Ulrich Siegmund |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 68% |
| 2026-10-04 | 66% |
| 2026-10-03 | 70% |
| 2026-10-02 | 66% |
| 2026-10-01 | 66% |
| 2026-09-13 | — |
| 2026-09-12 | — |
| 2026-09-09 | 36% |
| 2026-09-08 | — |
| 2026-09-07 | — |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Who will be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 68%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Who will be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 36% on September 9, 2026 to 68% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 32 points.
- Who will be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 36% and 70%. The final reading of 68% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt” for 6 days, since September 7, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 68%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 36% to 68%, ranging between 36% and 70% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.