Today’s odds
As of August 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 48%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Politics · tracked since July 22, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
48%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 23 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | 48% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | 48% |
| 2026-07-23 | 50% |
| 2026-07-22 | 52% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31 — what are the odds?
- As of August 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 48%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 52% on July 22, 2026 to 48% on August 1, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31” for 3 days, since July 22, 2026. As of August 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 48%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 52% to 48%, ranging between 48% and 52% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.