Final tracked odds
As of October 2, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 60%.
▲ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Politics · tracked since September 21, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 2, 2026
60%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58% | 60% | ▲ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | 60% |
| 2026-10-01 | 58% |
| 2026-09-30 | 56% |
| 2026-09-21 | 55% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 2, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 60%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 55% on September 21, 2026 to 60% on October 2, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31” for 4 days, since September 21, 2026. As of October 2, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 60%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 55% to 60%, ranging between 55% and 60% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 2, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.