Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 32%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 12 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Politics · tracked since September 25, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
32%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 3 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 32% | 32% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 32% |
| 2026-10-03 | 32% |
| 2026-10-02 | 32% |
| 2026-10-01 | 32% |
| 2026-09-25 | 44% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 32%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 44% on September 25, 2026 to 32% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 32% and 44%. The final reading of 32% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31” for 5 days, since September 25, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 32%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 44% to 32%, ranging between 32% and 44% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.