Today’s odds
As of October 18, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 61%.
▲ 8 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
Politics · tracked since October 11, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
61%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 16 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52% | 61% | ▲ 8 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 61% |
| 2026-10-16 | 52% |
| 2026-10-11 | 60% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15 — what are the odds?
- As of October 18, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 61%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 52% and 61%. The current reading of 61% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15” for 3 days, since October 11, 2026. As of October 18, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 61%. The chance for a yes has risen from 60% to 61%, ranging between 52% and 61% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.