Today’s odds
As of August 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 16%.
▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Politics · tracked since July 27, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
16%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 27 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 17% | 16% | ▼ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | 16% |
| 2026-07-27 | 17% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026” for 2 days, since July 27, 2026. As of August 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 17% to 16% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.