Final tracked odds
As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 34%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?
Politics · tracked since September 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026
34%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 34% | 34% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 34% |
| 2026-10-30 | 34% |
| 2026-10-29 | 34% |
| 2026-10-28 | 36% |
| 2026-09-21 | 38% |
| 2026-09-20 | 38% |
| 2026-09-19 | 40% |
| 2026-09-18 | 40% |
| 2026-09-13 | 39% |
| 2026-09-12 | 41% |
| 2026-09-11 | 42% |
| 2026-09-10 | 42% |
| 2026-09-09 | 39% |
| 2026-09-08 | 38% |
| 2026-09-07 | 38% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 34%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 15 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 38% on September 7, 2026 to 34% on November 3, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 15 tracked days the odds ranged between 34% and 42%. The final reading of 34% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027” for 15 days, since September 7, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 34%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 38% to 34%, ranging between 34% and 42% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.