Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 — what are the odds?

As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 20% on September 30, 2026 to 14% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 6 points.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 13 tracked days the odds ranged between 14% and 20%. The current reading of 14% sits at the bottom of that range.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since September 30, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET

14%

Today’s odds

As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 11	Today	Move
Yes	16%	14%	▼ 1

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-10-12	14%
2026-10-11	16%
2026-10-10	18%
2026-10-09	18%
2026-10-08	18%
2026-10-07	18%
2026-10-06	18%
2026-10-05	18%
2026-10-04	20%
2026-10-03	20%
2026-10-02	20%
2026-10-01	20%
2026-09-30	20%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 — what are the odds?: As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?: Down. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 20% on September 30, 2026 to 14% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 13 tracked days the odds ranged between 14% and 20%. The current reading of 14% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31” for 13 days, since September 30, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 20% to 14%, ranging between 14% and 20% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.