Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31 — what are the odds?

As of September 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31 — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on August 20, 2026 to 10% on September 1, 2026 — a change of 4 points.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 16%. The current reading of 10% sits at the bottom of that range.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since August 20, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

10%

Today’s odds

As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 10%.

▼ 5 since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 24	Today	Move
Yes	16%	10%	▼ 5

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-09-01	10%
2026-08-24	16%
2026-08-20	14%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31 — what are the odds?: As of September 1, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 10%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31 — have the odds gone up or down?: Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on August 20, 2026 to 10% on September 1, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 10% and 16%. The current reading of 10% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31” for 3 days, since August 20, 2026. As of September 1, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 10%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 14% to 10%, ranging between 10% and 16% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.