Today’s odds
As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?
Everything Else · tracked since July 9, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 4% |
| 2026-08-02 | 4% |
| 2026-08-01 | 4% |
| 2026-07-31 | 5% |
| 2026-07-19 | 10% |
| 2026-07-18 | 10% |
| 2026-07-09 | 10% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30 — what are the odds?
- As of August 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 7 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 10% on July 9, 2026 to 4% on August 3, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 7 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 10%. The current reading of 4% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30” for 7 days, since July 9, 2026. As of August 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 10% to 4%, ranging between 4% and 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.