Final tracked odds
As of September 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 27, 2026
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 20 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 6% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 6% |
| 2026-09-20 | 5% |
| 2026-09-19 | 5% |
| 2026-09-08 | 5% |
| 2026-09-05 | 5% |
| 2026-08-31 | 6% |
| 2026-08-30 | 5% |
| 2026-08-29 | 6% |
| 2026-08-28 | 5% |
| 2026-08-27 | 5% |
| 2026-08-26 | 5% |
| 2026-08-25 | 5% |
| 2026-08-24 | 5% |
| 2026-08-23 | 5% |
| 2026-08-22 | 5% |
| 2026-08-21 | 5% |
| 2026-07-25 | 5% |
| 2026-07-19 | 5% |
| 2026-07-18 | 5% |
| 2026-07-17 | 4% |
| 2026-07-16 | 5% |
| 2026-07-15 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 4% |
| 2026-07-13 | 4% |
| 2026-07-11 | 4% |
| 2026-07-10 | 4% |
| 2026-07-09 | 4% |
| 2026-07-07 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 28 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 4% on July 7, 2026 to 6% on September 27, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026” for 28 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 4% to 6% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 27, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.