Today’s odds
As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 5%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
5%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 26 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 5% |
| 2026-08-26 | 5% |
| 2026-08-25 | 5% |
| 2026-08-24 | 5% |
| 2026-08-23 | 5% |
| 2026-08-22 | 5% |
| 2026-08-21 | 5% |
| 2026-07-25 | 5% |
| 2026-07-19 | 5% |
| 2026-07-18 | 5% |
| 2026-07-17 | 4% |
| 2026-07-16 | 5% |
| 2026-07-15 | 4% |
| 2026-07-14 | 4% |
| 2026-07-13 | 4% |
| 2026-07-11 | 4% |
| 2026-07-10 | 4% |
| 2026-07-09 | 4% |
| 2026-07-07 | 4% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 27, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 5%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026 — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 19 tracked days the odds held near 4%, ending at 5% on August 27, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026” for 19 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 5%. The chance for a yes has held near 4% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.