US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026 — what are the odds?

As of August 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 64%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?

Up. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 28% on July 23, 2026 to 64% on August 6, 2026 — a change of 36 points.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 20% and 69%. The current reading of 64% sits inside that range.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since July 23, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

64%

Today’s odds

As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 64%.

▼ 4 since the previous update. ▲ 36 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 5	Today	Move
Yes	69%	64%	▼ 4

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-08-06	64%
2026-08-05	69%
2026-07-31	20%
2026-07-24	29%
2026-07-23	28%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026 — what are the odds?: As of August 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 64%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?: Up. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 28% on July 23, 2026 to 64% on August 6, 2026 — a change of 36 points.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 20% and 69%. The current reading of 64% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026” for 5 days, since July 23, 2026. As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 64%. The chance for a yes has risen from 28% to 64%, ranging between 20% and 69% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.