Final tracked odds
As of November 2, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 28%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since October 5, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 2, 2026
28%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Nov 1 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 26% | 28% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | 28% |
| 2026-11-01 | 26% |
| 2026-10-23 | 22% |
| 2026-10-22 | 22% |
| 2026-10-21 | 24% |
| 2026-10-20 | 28% |
| 2026-10-19 | 26% |
| 2026-10-11 | 26% |
| 2026-10-10 | 28% |
| 2026-10-09 | 34% |
| 2026-10-05 | 34% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, November 2, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 28%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 11 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 34% on October 5, 2026 to 28% on November 2, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 11 tracked days the odds ranged between 22% and 34%. The final reading of 28% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026” for 11 days, since October 5, 2026. As of November 2, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 28%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 34% to 28%, ranging between 22% and 34% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 2, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.