US imports Russian diesel by November 30 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 43%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

US imports Russian diesel by November 30 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 70% on October 22, 2026 to 43% on November 3, 2026 — a change of 27 points.

US imports Russian diesel by November 30 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 43% and 70%. The final reading of 43% sits at the bottom of that range.

US imports Russian diesel by November 30?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: US imports Russian diesel by November 30?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since October 22, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on November 3, 2026

43%

Final tracked odds

As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 43%.

▼ 13 since the previous update. ▼ 27 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Nov 2	Today	Move
Yes	56%	43%	▼ 13

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-11-03	43%
2026-11-02	56%
2026-10-31	51%
2026-10-30	48%
2026-10-22	70%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

US imports Russian diesel by November 30 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, November 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 43%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
US imports Russian diesel by November 30 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 70% on October 22, 2026 to 43% on November 3, 2026 — a change of 27 points.
US imports Russian diesel by November 30 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 43% and 70%. The final reading of 43% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US imports Russian diesel by November 30” for 5 days, since October 22, 2026. As of November 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 43%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 70% to 43%, ranging between 43% and 70% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on November 3, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.