US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, September 17, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on August 26, 2026 to 0.2% on September 17, 2026 — a change of 14 points.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.2% and 14%. The final reading of 0.2% sits at the bottom of that range.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since August 26, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 17, 2026

0.2%

Final tracked odds

As of September 17, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.2%.

▼ 2 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 3	Today	Move
Yes	2%	0.2%	▼ 2

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-09-17	0.2%
2026-09-03	2%
2026-09-02	3%
2026-09-01	5%
2026-08-26	14%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, September 17, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 0.2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on August 26, 2026 to 0.2% on September 17, 2026 — a change of 14 points.
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.2% and 14%. The final reading of 0.2% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15” for 5 days, since August 26, 2026. As of September 17, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 14% to 0.2%, ranging between 0.2% and 14% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 17, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.