Today’s odds
As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 0.4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 2, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
0.4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0.9% | 0.4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 0.4% |
| 2026-08-05 | 0.9% |
| 2026-08-02 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of August 6, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 0.4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on August 2, 2026 to 0.4% on August 6, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 0.4% and 6%. The current reading of 0.4% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026” for 3 days, since August 2, 2026. As of August 6, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 0.4%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 6% to 0.4%, ranging between 0.4% and 6% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.