Final tracked odds
As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 4%.
Unchanged since the previous update. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026
4%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 30 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 4% |
| 2026-09-30 | 4% |
| 2026-09-29 | 4% |
| 2026-09-28 | 4% |
| 2026-09-27 | 4% |
| 2026-09-26 | 4% |
| 2026-09-25 | 4% |
| 2026-09-24 | 4% |
| 2026-09-23 | 3% |
| 2026-09-22 | 4% |
| 2026-09-21 | 4% |
| 2026-09-20 | 4% |
| 2026-09-19 | 3% |
| 2026-09-18 | 3% |
| 2026-09-17 | 4% |
| 2026-09-16 | 4% |
| 2026-09-15 | 5% |
| 2026-09-14 | 5% |
| 2026-09-13 | 5% |
| 2026-09-12 | 5% |
| 2026-09-11 | 5% |
| 2026-09-10 | 5% |
| 2026-09-09 | 5% |
| 2026-09-08 | 5% |
| 2026-09-07 | 5% |
| 2026-09-06 | 5% |
| 2026-09-05 | 5% |
| 2026-09-04 | 5% |
| 2026-09-03 | 5% |
| 2026-09-02 | 5% |
| 2026-09-01 | 5% |
| 2026-08-31 | 5% |
| 2026-08-30 | 4% |
| 2026-08-29 | 4% |
| 2026-08-28 | 5% |
| 2026-08-27 | 5% |
| 2026-08-26 | 5% |
| 2026-08-25 | 4% |
| 2026-08-24 | 4% |
| 2026-08-23 | 4% |
| 2026-08-22 | 4% |
| 2026-08-21 | 4% |
| 2026-08-20 | 4% |
| 2026-08-19 | 4% |
| 2026-08-18 | 4% |
| 2026-08-17 | 4% |
| 2026-08-16 | 3% |
| 2026-08-15 | 3% |
| 2026-08-14 | 4% |
| 2026-08-13 | 4% |
| 2026-08-12 | 4% |
| 2026-08-11 | 4% |
| 2026-08-10 | 4% |
| 2026-08-07 | 4% |
| 2026-07-31 | 5% |
| 2026-07-30 | 5% |
| 2026-07-29 | 5% |
| 2026-07-28 | 5% |
| 2026-07-27 | 3% |
| 2026-07-26 | 3% |
| 2026-07-25 | 3% |
| 2026-07-24 | 3% |
| 2026-07-23 | 4% |
| 2026-07-22 | 3% |
| 2026-07-21 | 5% |
| 2026-07-19 | 5% |
| 2026-07-18 | 4% |
| 2026-07-17 | 4% |
| 2026-07-16 | 5% |
| 2026-07-15 | 6% |
| 2026-07-14 | 6% |
| 2026-07-13 | 6% |
| 2026-07-12 | 6% |
| 2026-07-11 | 6% |
| 2026-07-10 | 6% |
| 2026-07-09 | 6% |
| 2026-07-08 | 6% |
| 2026-07-07 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 4%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 78 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 6% on July 7, 2026 to 4% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026” for 78 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 4%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 6% to 4%, ranging between 3% and 6% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.