Final tracked odds
As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 30%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 9 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Everything Else · tracked since August 26, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 30, 2026
30%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 29% | 30% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 30% |
| 2026-09-29 | 29% |
| 2026-09-28 | 28% |
| 2026-08-31 | 20% |
| 2026-08-30 | 20% |
| 2026-08-29 | 21% |
| 2026-08-28 | 21% |
| 2026-08-27 | 19% |
| 2026-08-26 | 29% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 30%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch — how much did the odds move?
- Barely. Across 9 tracked days the odds held near 29%, ending at 30% on September 30, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
- Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 9 tracked days the odds ranged between 19% and 30%. The final reading of 30% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch” for 9 days, since August 26, 2026. As of September 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 30%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 29% to 30%, ranging between 19% and 30% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 30, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.