Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 96%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Everything Else · tracked since October 1, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
96%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 96% | 96% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 96% |
| 2026-10-11 | 96% |
| 2026-10-10 | 96% |
| 2026-10-09 | 96% |
| 2026-10-08 | 96% |
| 2026-10-07 | 96% |
| 2026-10-06 | 96% |
| 2026-10-05 | 95% |
| 2026-10-04 | 94% |
| 2026-10-03 | 95% |
| 2026-10-02 | 93% |
| 2026-10-01 | 92% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 96%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 92% on October 1, 2026 to 96% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch” for 12 days, since October 1, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 96%. The chance for a yes has risen from 92% to 96%, ranging between 92% and 96% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.