Final tracked odds
As of October 5, 2026, market-consensus odds make iPhone 18 the most likely outcome at 96%.
▲ 8 since the previous update. ▲ 26 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
What will Apple say during their next earnings call?
Everything Else · tracked since September 24, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 5, 2026
96%
How the odds have moved
iPhone 18SiriTariffManufacturingMac Studio
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone 18 | 87% | 96% | ▲ 8 |
| Siri | 88% | 92% | ▲ 5 |
| Tariff | 85% | 90% | ▲ 5 |
| Manufacturing | 86% | 85% | ▼ 1 |
| Mac Studio | — | 84% | — |
| Fold / Folding / Foldable | 68% | 62% | ▼ 7 |
| Broadcom | 44% | 40% | ▼ 4 |
Full history table
| Date | iPhone 18 | Siri | Tariff | Manufacturing | Mac Studio | Fold / Folding / Foldable | Broadcom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 96% | 92% | 90% | 85% | 84% | 62% | 40% |
| 2026-09-29 | 87% | 88% | 85% | 86% | — | 68% | 44% |
| 2026-09-28 | 70% | 88% | 70% | 86% | — | 70% | 44% |
| 2026-09-25 | 90% | — | — | — | — | 80% | — |
| 2026-09-24 | 66% | — | — | — | — | 52% | — |
| 2026-09-23 * | 89% | 73% | 80% | 73% | — | 3% | 3% |
* reference history from the market’s own records, before our tracking began.
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- What will Apple say during their next earnings call — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 5, 2026, iPhone 18 led at 96%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- What will Apple say during their next earnings call — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 5 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 66% on September 24, 2026 to 96% on October 5, 2026 — a change of 30 points.
- What will Apple say during their next earnings call — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 5 tracked days the odds ranged between 66% and 96%. The final reading of 96% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “What will Apple say during their next earnings call” for 5 days, since September 24, 2026. As of October 5, 2026, iPhone 18 leads the field at 96%. The final tracked chance for iPhone 18 has risen from 66% to 96%, ranging between 66% and 96% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 5, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.