Today’s odds
As of September 3, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 46%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 15 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
46%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 2 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 46% | 46% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | 46% |
| 2026-09-02 | 46% |
| 2026-09-01 | 44% |
| 2026-07-19 | 32% |
| 2026-07-18 | 29% |
| 2026-07-17 | 31% |
| 2026-07-16 | 30% |
| 2026-07-14 | 29% |
| 2026-07-11 | 30% |
| 2026-07-10 | 30% |
| 2026-07-09 | 30% |
| 2026-07-07 | 31% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch — what are the odds?
- As of September 3, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 46%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 12 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 31% on July 7, 2026 to 46% on September 3, 2026 — a change of 15 points.
- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 12 tracked days the odds ranged between 29% and 46%. The current reading of 46% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch” for 12 days, since July 7, 2026. As of September 3, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 46%. The chance for a yes has risen from 31% to 46%, ranging between 29% and 46% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.