Final tracked odds
As of October 16, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 58%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 16, 2026
58%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 15 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58% | 58% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | 58% |
| 2026-10-15 | 58% |
| 2026-10-14 | 57% |
| 2026-10-12 | 58% |
| 2026-10-09 | 60% |
| 2026-09-08 | 50% |
| 2026-09-07 | 55% |
| 2026-09-06 | 49% |
| 2026-09-05 | 50% |
| 2026-09-04 | 52% |
| 2026-09-03 | 46% |
| 2026-09-02 | 46% |
| 2026-09-01 | 44% |
| 2026-07-19 | 32% |
| 2026-07-18 | 29% |
| 2026-07-17 | 31% |
| 2026-07-16 | 30% |
| 2026-07-14 | 29% |
| 2026-07-11 | 30% |
| 2026-07-10 | 30% |
| 2026-07-09 | 30% |
| 2026-07-07 | 31% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 16, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 58%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch — did the odds go up or down?
- Up. Over the 22 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 31% on July 7, 2026 to 58% on October 16, 2026 — a change of 27 points.
- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 22 tracked days the odds ranged between 29% and 60%. The final reading of 58% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch” for 22 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 16, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 58%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 31% to 58%, ranging between 29% and 60% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 16, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.