Final tracked odds
As of September 17, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 3, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 17, 2026
6%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 16 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 6% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 6% |
| 2026-09-16 | 6% |
| 2026-09-15 | 8% |
| 2026-09-14 | 8% |
| 2026-09-13 | 9% |
| 2026-09-12 | 9% |
| 2026-09-11 | 8% |
| 2026-09-10 | 6% |
| 2026-09-09 | 6% |
| 2026-09-08 | 8% |
| 2026-09-07 | 8% |
| 2026-09-06 | 6% |
| 2026-09-05 | 8% |
| 2026-09-04 | 8% |
| 2026-09-03 | 8% |
| 2026-09-02 | 10% |
| 2026-08-14 | 36% |
| 2026-08-13 | 42% |
| 2026-08-12 | 46% |
| 2026-08-06 | 76% |
| 2026-08-05 | 76% |
| 2026-08-03 | 64% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 17, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 22 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 64% on August 3, 2026 to 6% on September 17, 2026 — a change of 58 points.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 22 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 76%. The final reading of 6% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026” for 22 days, since August 3, 2026. As of September 17, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 64% to 6%, ranging between 6% and 76% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 17, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.