Final tracked odds
As of August 14, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 36%.
▼ 7 since the previous update. ▼ 40 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 3, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 14, 2026
36%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Aug 13 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42% | 36% | ▼ 7 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | 36% |
| 2026-08-13 | 42% |
| 2026-08-12 | 46% |
| 2026-08-06 | 76% |
| 2026-08-05 | 76% |
| 2026-08-03 | 64% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, August 14, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 36%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 64% on August 3, 2026 to 36% on August 14, 2026 — a change of 28 points.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 36% and 76%. The final reading of 36% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026” for 6 days, since August 3, 2026. As of August 14, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 36%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 64% to 36%, ranging between 36% and 76% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 14, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.