Today’s odds
As of July 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 51%.
▼ 5 since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Everything Else · tracked since July 8, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
51%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 8 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 56% | 51% | ▼ 5 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 51% |
| 2026-07-08 | 56% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended — what are the odds?
- As of July 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 51%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 56% on July 8, 2026 to 51% on July 31, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 51% and 56%. The current reading of 51% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended” for 2 days, since July 8, 2026. As of July 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 51%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 56% to 51%, ranging between 51% and 56% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.