US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, October 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 38%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 30% on October 16, 2026 to 38% on October 31, 2026 — a change of 8 points.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 30% and 38%. The final reading of 38% sits at the top of that range.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since October 16, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 31, 2026

38%

Final tracked odds

As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 38%.

▲ 5 since the previous update. ▲ 3 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 30	Today	Move
Yes	32%	38%	▲ 5

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-10-31	38%
2026-10-30	32%
2026-10-29	32%
2026-10-20	34%
2026-10-19	34%
2026-10-18	30%
2026-10-17	30%
2026-10-16	30%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, October 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 38%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31 — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 30% on October 16, 2026 to 38% on October 31, 2026 — a change of 8 points.
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 30% and 38%. The final reading of 38% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31” for 8 days, since October 16, 2026. As of October 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 38%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 30% to 38%, ranging between 30% and 38% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 31, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.