US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026 — what are the odds?

As of August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 20% on August 22, 2026 to 14% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 6 points.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 14% and 25%. The current reading of 14% sits at the bottom of that range.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since August 22, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET

14%

Today’s odds

As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 14%.

▼ 12 since the previous update. ▼ 12 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 24	Today	Move
Yes	25%	14%	▼ 12

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-08-31	14%
2026-08-24	25%
2026-08-22	20%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026 — what are the odds?: As of August 31, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?: Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 20% on August 22, 2026 to 14% on August 31, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 14% and 25%. The current reading of 14% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026” for 3 days, since August 22, 2026. As of August 31, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 14%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 20% to 14%, ranging between 14% and 25% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.