Final tracked odds
As of September 16, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 5%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 9 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 22, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on September 16, 2026
5%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Sep 15 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 5% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | 5% |
| 2026-09-15 | 4% |
| 2026-09-14 | 9% |
| 2026-08-31 | 14% |
| 2026-08-24 | 25% |
| 2026-08-22 | 20% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, September 16, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 5%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 6 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 20% on August 22, 2026 to 5% on September 16, 2026 — a change of 15 points.
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 6 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 25%. The final reading of 5% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026” for 6 days, since August 22, 2026. As of September 16, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 5%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 20% to 5%, ranging between 4% and 25% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on September 16, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.