Today’s odds
As of July 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 10 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 24, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
2%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 2% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 2% |
| 2026-07-29 | 5% |
| 2026-07-24 | 12% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of July 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 12% on July 24, 2026 to 2% on July 30, 2026 — a change of 10 points.
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 12%. The current reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026” for 3 days, since July 24, 2026. As of July 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 12% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 12% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.