Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, August 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on August 14, 2026 to 2% on August 19, 2026 — a change of 6 points.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 8%. The final reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since August 14, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on August 19, 2026

Final tracked odds

As of August 19, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 2%.

▼ 1 since the previous update. ▼ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Aug 18	Today	Move
Yes	3%	2%	▼ 1

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-08-19	2%
2026-08-18	3%
2026-08-14	8%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, August 19, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 2%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 3 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 8% on August 14, 2026 to 2% on August 19, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 3 tracked days the odds ranged between 2% and 8%. The final reading of 2% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15” for 3 days, since August 14, 2026. As of August 19, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 2%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 8% to 2%, ranging between 2% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on August 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.