Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31 — what are the odds?

As of October 18, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 26%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31 — have the odds gone up or down?

Up. Over the 42 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 22% on July 7, 2026 to 26% on October 18, 2026 — a change of 4 points.

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 42 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 26%. The current reading of 26% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31” for 42 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 18, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 26%. The chance for a yes has risen from 22% to 26%, ranging between 16% and 26% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

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