Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30 — what are the odds?

As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30 — have the odds gone up or down?

Down. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 24% on August 25, 2026 to 6% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 18 points.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30 — what are the highest and lowest odds?

Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 28%. The current reading of 6% sits at the bottom of that range.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since August 25, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET

Today’s odds

As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 6%.

▼ 6 since the previous update. ▼ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Sep 13	Today	Move
Yes	12%	6%	▼ 6

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-10-12	6%
2026-09-13	12%
2026-09-12	12%
2026-09-11	12%
2026-09-10	10%
2026-09-09	14%
2026-08-26	28%
2026-08-25	24%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30 — what are the odds?: As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 6%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30 — have the odds gone up or down?: Down. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 24% on August 25, 2026 to 6% on October 12, 2026 — a change of 18 points.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30 — what are the highest and lowest odds?: Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 28%. The current reading of 6% sits at the bottom of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30” for 8 days, since August 25, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 6%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 24% to 6%, ranging between 6% and 28% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.