The Morning Line

Who will be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

UFC · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET

14%

Today’s odds

As of August 27, 2026, market-consensus odds make Khamzat Chimaev the most likely outcome at 14%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 4 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Khamzat ChimaevIsrael AdesanyaRobert WhittakerJared CannonierAnthony Hernandez
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 17Jul 29Aug 17Aug 27Khamzat Chimaev — Jul 9: 18%Khamzat Chimaev — Aug 27: 14%14%Israel Adesanya — Jul 7: 0.3%Israel Adesanya — Aug 27: 0.1%Robert Whittaker — Jul 7: 0.1%Robert Whittaker — Aug 27: 0.1%Jared Cannonier — Jul 7: 0.4%Jared Cannonier — Aug 27: 0.1%Anthony Hernandez — Jul 9: 0.5%Anthony Hernandez — Aug 27: 0.1%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeAug 26TodayMove
Khamzat Chimaev—14%—
Israel Adesanya0.1%0.1%—
Robert Whittaker0.1%0.1%—
Jared Cannonier0.1%0.1%—
Anthony Hernandez0.1%0.1%—
Full history table
DateKhamzat ChimaevIsrael AdesanyaRobert WhittakerJared CannonierAnthony Hernandez
2026-08-2714%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-08-26—0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-08-2512%—0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-08-24—0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-08-2318%—0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-08-2218%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-08-21—0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-08-2018%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-08-19—0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-08-18—0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-08-17—0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-08-16—0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-08-15—0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-08-14—0.1%0.1%0.1%—
2026-08-13—0.1%———
2026-08-12—0.1%———
2026-08-11—0.1%———
2026-07-31—0.1%0.1%0.1%—
2026-07-30—0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-07-29—0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-07-28—0.1%0.1%0.1%—
2026-07-27—0.1%———
2026-07-26—0.1%0.1%0.5%0.2%
2026-07-25—0.1%0.1%0.5%0.2%
2026-07-24—0.1%———
2026-07-23—0.1%———
2026-07-22—0.1%———
2026-07-1919%—0.1%—0.7%
2026-07-1817%———0.7%
2026-07-1716%—0.1%0.6%0.7%
2026-07-16—0.3%0.1%0.9%0.8%
2026-07-15—0.4%———
2026-07-14—0.3%0.1%0.8%0.8%
2026-07-13—0.3%———
2026-07-12—0.4%———
2026-07-1124%0.4%0.1%0.4%0.4%
2026-07-10—0.5%0.1%0.4%0.5%
2026-07-0918%0.5%0.1%0.4%0.5%
2026-07-08—0.5%———
2026-07-07—0.3%0.1%0.4%—

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
As of August 27, 2026, Khamzat Chimaev leads at 14%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
Down. Over the 10 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 18% on July 9, 2026 to 14% on August 27, 2026 — a change of 4 points.
Who will be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
Over 10 tracked days the odds ranged between 12% and 24%. The current reading of 14% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026” for 10 days, since July 7, 2026. As of August 27, 2026, Khamzat Chimaev leads the field at 14%. The chance for Khamzat Chimaev has fallen from 18% to 14%, ranging between 12% and 24% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.

Related questions

The Morning Line reports market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. The numbers are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.