The Morning Line

Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

World Cup · tracked since July 7, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on July 19, 2026

59%

Final tracked odds

As of July 19, 2026, market-consensus odds make Spain the most likely outcome at 59%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 39 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

SpainArgentinaSouth America (CONMEBOL)
0%25%50%75%100%Jul 7Jul 10Jul 13Jul 16Jul 19Spain — Jul 7: 19%Spain — Jul 8: 19%Spain — Jul 9: 19%Spain — Jul 10: 16%Spain — Jul 11: 21%Spain — Jul 12: 20%Spain — Jul 13: 21%Spain — Jul 14: 23%Spain — Jul 15: 58%Spain — Jul 16: 58%Spain — Jul 17: 59%Spain — Jul 18: 59%Spain — Jul 19: 59%59%Argentina — Jul 7: 17%Argentina — Jul 8: 19%Argentina — Jul 9: 20%Argentina — Jul 10: 18%Argentina — Jul 11: 18%Argentina — Jul 12: 19%Argentina — Jul 13: 17%Argentina — Jul 14: 17%Argentina — Jul 15: 42%Argentina — Jul 16: 42%Argentina — Jul 17: 41%Argentina — Jul 18: 40%Argentina — Jul 19: 41%South America (CONMEBOL) — Jul 11: 18%South America (CONMEBOL) — Jul 12: 18%South America (CONMEBOL) — Jul 13: 18%South America (CONMEBOL) — Jul 14: 18%South America (CONMEBOL) — Jul 15: 42%South America (CONMEBOL) — Jul 17: 42%South America (CONMEBOL) — Jul 18: 40%South America (CONMEBOL) — Jul 19: 40%

Every outcome we track

OutcomeJul 18TodayMove
Spain59%59%—
Argentina40%41%▲ 1
South America (CONMEBOL)40%40%—
Full history table
DateSpainArgentinaSouth America (CONMEBOL)
2026-07-1959%41%40%
2026-07-1859%40%40%
2026-07-1759%41%42%
2026-07-1658%42%—
2026-07-1558%42%42%
2026-07-1423%17%18%
2026-07-1321%17%18%
2026-07-1220%19%18%
2026-07-1121%18%18%
2026-07-1016%18%—
2026-07-0919%20%—
2026-07-0819%19%—
2026-07-0719%17%—

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup — what were the odds?
As of the last morning we tracked it, July 19, 2026, Spain led at 59%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup — did the odds go up or down?
Up. Over the 13 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 19% on July 7, 2026 to 59% on July 19, 2026 — a change of 40 points.
Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup — what were the highest and lowest odds?
Over 13 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 59%. The final reading of 59% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup” for 13 days, since July 7, 2026. As of July 19, 2026, Spain leads the field at 59%. The final tracked chance for Spain has risen from 19% to 59%, ranging between 16% and 59% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on July 19, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.

Related questions

The Morning Line publishes probability forecasts built from market-consensus odds — the aggregated judgment of thousands of people with real money on the line, refreshed every morning. Forecasts are for news and informational purposes only and are not financial or investment advice. Probabilities move; the numbers on this page were current when the edition was published.

Every number here is free to download and reuse under CC BY 4.0 — see the open data.