Today’s odds
As of October 16, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.
▼ 2 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since August 1, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 15 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 8% | ▼ 2 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | 8% |
| 2026-10-15 | 9% |
| 2026-10-14 | 9% |
| 2026-10-13 | 9% |
| 2026-10-12 | 8% |
| 2026-10-11 | 9% |
| 2026-10-10 | 6% |
| 2026-10-09 | 6% |
| 2026-10-08 | 6% |
| 2026-10-07 | 6% |
| 2026-10-06 | 8% |
| 2026-10-05 | 8% |
| 2026-10-03 | 8% |
| 2026-10-02 | 8% |
| 2026-10-01 | 8% |
| 2026-08-05 | 22% |
| 2026-08-01 | 14% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Natural Disaster in 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of October 16, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Natural Disaster in 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Down. Over the 17 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 14% on August 1, 2026 to 8% on October 16, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Natural Disaster in 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 17 tracked days the odds ranged between 6% and 22%. The current reading of 8% sits inside that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Natural Disaster in 2026” for 17 days, since August 1, 2026. As of October 16, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 14% to 8%, ranging between 6% and 22% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.