Final tracked odds
As of October 8, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 8%.
▼ 3 since the previous update. ▼ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since September 9, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 8, 2026
8%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 5 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 8% | ▼ 3 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | 8% |
| 2026-10-05 | 10% |
| 2026-10-04 | 10% |
| 2026-10-03 | 10% |
| 2026-10-02 | 10% |
| 2026-10-01 | 10% |
| 2026-09-30 | 10% |
| 2026-09-29 | 10% |
| 2026-09-28 | 10% |
| 2026-09-25 | 12% |
| 2026-09-24 | 12% |
| 2026-09-23 | 12% |
| 2026-09-22 | 12% |
| 2026-09-21 | 12% |
| 2026-09-09 | 20% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 8, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 8%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?
- Down. Over the 15 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 20% on September 9, 2026 to 8% on October 8, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 15 tracked days the odds ranged between 8% and 20%. The final reading of 8% sits at the bottom of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026” for 15 days, since September 9, 2026. As of October 8, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 8%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 20% to 8%, ranging between 8% and 20% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 8, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.