OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027 — did the odds go up or down?

Down. Over the 10 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 28% on September 4, 2026 to 16% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 12 points.

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 10 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 28%. The final reading of 16% sits inside that range.

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since September 4, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 4, 2026

16%

Final tracked odds

As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 16%.

Unchanged since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 3	Today	Move
Yes	16%	16%	—

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-10-04	16%
2026-10-03	16%
2026-09-30	18%
2026-09-29	18%
2026-09-28	18%
2026-09-25	16%
2026-09-24	16%
2026-09-23	18%
2026-09-05	26%
2026-09-04	28%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, October 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 16%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027 — did the odds go up or down?: Down. Over the 10 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 28% on September 4, 2026 to 16% on October 4, 2026 — a change of 12 points.
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 10 tracked days the odds ranged between 16% and 28%. The final reading of 16% sits inside that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027” for 10 days, since September 4, 2026. As of October 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 16%. The final tracked chance for a yes has fallen from 28% to 16%, ranging between 16% and 28% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 4, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.