Final tracked odds
As of October 10, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 11%.
▲ 1 since the previous update. ▲ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Everything Else · tracked since October 9, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 10, 2026
11%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 9 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10% | 11% | ▲ 1 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | 11% |
| 2026-10-09 | 10% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.
Common questions
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31 — what were the odds?
- As of the last morning we tracked it, October 10, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 11%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31” for 2 days, since October 9, 2026. As of October 10, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 11%. The final tracked chance for a yes has held near 10% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 10, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.