Today’s odds
As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 5%.
Unchanged since the previous update. ▼ 1 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
NATO article 5 before 2027?
Everything Else · tracked since July 7, 2026 · last updated 5:00 AM ET
5%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Oct 11 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 5% | — |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 5% |
| 2026-10-11 | 5% |
| 2026-10-10 | 6% |
| 2026-10-09 | 6% |
| 2026-10-08 | 6% |
| 2026-10-07 | 5% |
| 2026-10-06 | 6% |
| 2026-10-05 | 6% |
| 2026-10-04 | 6% |
| 2026-10-03 | 6% |
| 2026-10-02 | 6% |
| 2026-10-01 | 6% |
| 2026-07-19 | 8% |
| 2026-07-18 | 8% |
| 2026-07-17 | 8% |
| 2026-07-16 | 8% |
| 2026-07-15 | 8% |
| 2026-07-14 | 8% |
| 2026-07-13 | 6% |
| 2026-07-12 | 6% |
| 2026-07-11 | 6% |
| 2026-07-10 | 6% |
| 2026-07-09 | 6% |
| 2026-07-08 | 6% |
| 2026-07-07 | 6% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- NATO article 5 before 2027 — what are the odds?
- As of October 12, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 5%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- NATO article 5 before 2027 — how much have the odds move?
- Barely. Across 25 tracked days the odds held near 6%, ending at 5% on October 12, 2026 — a question the market has not changed its mind about.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “NATO article 5 before 2027” for 25 days, since July 7, 2026. As of October 12, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 5%. The chance for a yes has fallen from 6% to 5%, ranging between 5% and 8% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.