Today’s odds
As of July 30, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 30%.
▲ 7 since the previous update. ▲ 2 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Everything Else · tracked since July 27, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
30%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 29 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 22% | 30% | ▲ 7 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 30% |
| 2026-07-29 | 22% |
| 2026-07-28 | 26% |
| 2026-07-27 | 28% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026 — what are the odds?
- As of July 30, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 30%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 4 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 28% on July 27, 2026 to 30% on July 30, 2026 — a change of 2 points.
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 4 tracked days the odds ranged between 22% and 30%. The current reading of 30% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026” for 4 days, since July 27, 2026. As of July 30, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 30%. The chance for a yes has risen from 28% to 30%, ranging between 22% and 30% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.