Modi out by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?

As of the last morning we tracked it, October 8, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 9%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.

Modi out by December 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?

Up. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 4% on October 1, 2026 to 9% on October 8, 2026 — a change of 5 points.

Modi out by December 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?

Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 9%. The final reading of 9% sits at the top of that range.

Modi out by December 31, 2026?

Name: Daily market-consensus odds: Modi out by December 31, 2026?
Creator: The Morning Line
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Everything Else · tracked since October 1, 2026 · no longer updating — this question left the market on October 8, 2026

Final tracked odds

As of October 8, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 9%.

▲ 4 since the previous update. ▲ 5 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.

How the odds have moved

Every outcome we track

Outcome	Oct 7	Today	Move
Yes	6%	9%	▲ 4

Full history table

Date	Yes
2026-10-08	9%
2026-10-07	6%
2026-10-06	4%
2026-10-05	4%
2026-10-04	4%
2026-10-03	4%
2026-10-02	4%
2026-10-01	4%

Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. The record is final; past values never change.

Common questions

Modi out by December 31, 2026 — what were the odds?: As of the last morning we tracked it, October 8, 2026, the market-consensus chance was 9%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
Modi out by December 31, 2026 — did the odds go up or down?: Up. Over the 8 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 4% on October 1, 2026 to 9% on October 8, 2026 — a change of 5 points.
Modi out by December 31, 2026 — what were the highest and lowest odds?: Over 8 tracked days the odds ranged between 4% and 9%. The final reading of 9% sits at the top of that range.

About this question

The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Modi out by December 31, 2026” for 8 days, since October 1, 2026. As of October 8, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 9%. The final tracked chance for a yes has risen from 4% to 9%, ranging between 4% and 9% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. The question left the market on October 8, 2026, and this page is now a permanent record.