Today’s odds
As of August 4, 2026, market-consensus odds put the chance at 90%.
▲ 6 since the previous update. ▲ 6 over the last 7 days. Probabilities are market-consensus forecasts, not predictions.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
Politics · tracked since July 31, 2026 · last updated 5:01 AM ET
90%
How the odds have moved
Every outcome we track
| Outcome | Jul 31 | Today | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 84% | 90% | ▲ 6 |
Full history table
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 90% |
| 2026-07-31 | 84% |
Use this data. The full daily history behind this page is free to download and reuse with a link back to this page: Download the full daily odds history (CSV) · the same history as JSON · about the open data. Updated every morning; past values never change.
Common questions
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9 — what are the odds?
- As of August 4, 2026, the market-consensus chance is 90%. That is the aggregated judgment of traders with money at stake, reported by The Morning Line — not our own prediction.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9 — have the odds gone up or down?
- Up. Over the 2 days we tracked this question, the odds moved from 84% on July 31, 2026 to 90% on August 4, 2026 — a change of 6 points.
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9 — what are the highest and lowest odds?
- Over 2 tracked days the odds ranged between 84% and 90%. The current reading of 90% sits at the top of that range.
About this question
The Morning Line has reported the market-consensus odds on “Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9” for 2 days, since July 31, 2026. As of August 4, 2026, market-consensus odds sit at 90%. The chance for a yes has risen from 84% to 90%, ranging between 84% and 90% across that stretch. These are reported probabilities, not our own predictions. This page updates every morning with the full daily history, free to download as JSON or CSV.